Iran nuclear talks on verge of collapse

Everyone’s already preparing for the aftermath of failure

Most of the recent evidence indicates that the chances of a new Iran-US nuclear deal being signed are more remote than ever, amid rising tensions between the two sides.

Wednesday’s phone call from Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid to President Joe Biden, and the sudden trip to Washington by Mossad chief David Barnea, weren’t about making a deal that would work for all sides. They were about what to do after the talks collapse.

A number of recent developments would appear to confirm this outlook:

(1)Warnings by Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) chiefs that Israel, and any states cooperating with it, will pay a heavy price if they attack Iran.

(2) The massive military exercise held by Iranian ground forces in Isfahan province this week, is described as the largest ever, including missile, electronic warfare, drone, artillery, and armoured units.

(3) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi’s unprecedented declaration that the agency cannot be sure that the Iranian nuclear programme is peaceful because of Iran’s refusal to answer questions about secret nuclear sites.

(4) The same IAEA’s affirmation in its Quarterly Report that Iran’s stock of 60% enriched uranium has grown from 12.5 to 55.6 kg, bringing it closer to being able to produce a nuclear explosive.

(5) The large-scale exercises carried out by the Israeli army in response to Iran’s, and Lapid’s assertion that Biden gave Israel a green light to do anything necessary to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state.

(6) Albania’s severing of diplomatic relations with Iran, after the White House announced it would take all necessary measures to counter Iranian cyber-attacks against the country. These were apparently in response to the Albanian government’s hosting of 3,000 members of the US-backed Iranian opposition group the Mujahedin-e-Khalq at a base near the country’s main port of Durres.

(7) Repeated drone attacks in August against US military bases in Syria at the Omar oilfield in the northeast and al-Tanafnear the Jordanian and Iraqi borders, which the US blamed on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

(8) The escalation of Israeli air raids against Syrian civilian airports in Damascus and Aleppo, on the pretext that they are used to transfer Iranian weapons to the country. These are becoming almost routine. The latest attack on Aleppo airport made it inoperable.

These developments lead to the conclusion that the period of tension following the failure of the nuclear talks has already begun. The region is waiting for the trigger that starts the regional war which all parties have tried to avoid.

Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state. It has gone further than that. It has mastered the game of playing for time to reach that status. Many observers are convinced it already possesses one or more nuclear weapons. Since Ibrahim Raisi became president, it has been clear that Iran will not risk signing a deal with a US president who may be gone in a couple of years and whose successor may renege on it again.

Iran has managed to withstand many of the negative effects of US sanctions and is now exporting two million barrels per day at much higher prices than two years ago thanks to the Ukraine war.

There could be serious trouble in the near future, but it’s unlikely to work to the advantage of the US and Israel and their allies.

Iran nuclear talks on verge of collapse