TheAltWorld Will Iran exact revenge?
Tehran must respond forcefully to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah
The pressing question being asked following the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is how will the Iranian state respond to this massacre, whose victims included several senior resistance figures and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’ deputy commander in charge of the Lebanese file Gen. Abbas Nilforushan.
Before venturing to answer, it must be noted that many analysts, myself included, believe Benjamin Netanyahu’s next intended target is likely to be Iran and its nuclear programme, because of the crucial support it provides to resistance formations in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
That support led to the shaking of the occupation state’s security and stability and its humiliating defeat in Gaza represented by its massive loss of personnel and morale and its failure to achieve any of its objectives: destroying Hamas and the other resistance groups, ending its rule in the Strip, releasing all the Israeli captives, and expelling two million of its inhabitants to the Sinai desert.
Iran was clearly the main item in Netanyahu’s speech to the UN General Assembly, which he delivered to a near-empty chamber after most of the diplomatic delegations walked out. As is his custom, he brandished two maps of the region: a green map labelled ‘good’ consisting of the normalising Arab states, and a black ‘evil’ map comprising the pro-resistance countries including Iran, which he vowed to punish for supporting ‘terrorism’ and warned he could hit anywhere he wanted.
By transferring his war of annihilation from Gaza to Lebanon and intensifying missile and bombing raids on the country, Netanyahu sought to terrorise Iran as well as Hezbollah and its mass constituency and present it with two choices: either surrender, or face a devastating war and assassinations of its leaders.
A clear and forceful response to the killing of Nasrallah and the implicit threat it carried was delivered by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday. He said Israel could not deal a critical structural blow to Hezbollah, and that along with the other resistance forces it would determine the region’s fate. “All the resistance forces in the region stand by and support Hezbollah”, he affirmed, urging all Muslims to “stand with all their capabilities with the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah and help them confront the evil usurping entity.”
These were strong words from Iran’s top decision-makers, but some may argue that they have heard many like them over the years that were not translated into practice — most recently after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran which he was visiting to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran’s avoidance of direct retaliation for Israel’s mass killings in Gaza and Lebanon hurt its standing, image, and credibility in Islamic public opinion. Failure to react forcefully to avenge Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah would further erode its stature as leader of the Axis of Resistance. There is a significant difference between the assassination of Haniyeh and that of ideological bedfellow Nasrallah and most of his front-ranking military commanders.
Nobody wants to embroil Iran in wars with Israel and the US. But it has become demonstrably clear that Israel is exploiting Iran’s failure to retaliate directly — either for attacks and assassinations on its own territory or in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq — to carry out yet more killings and massacres. It could encourage it to launch air strikes in future deep inside Iran.
The policy of restraint, strategic patience, and level-headedness may work with countries that respect rules of engagement, the laws of war, and moral values. But it is counterproductive when applied to an Israeli enemy that tramples on all the rules with boots soaked in the blood of leaders, women, and children from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran itself.
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