US-Iran “MOU”: Beware of Triumphalism

▪️Iran has simply survived the latest round of DECADES of US encroachment, encirclement, containment, and aggression;

▪️Actual “winning” looks like what the US has done in Syria, where one side completely loses, is removed entirely from the regional equation, and there are no “talks” or “negotiations” because the losing side has zero leverage to even get the other side to the table;

▪️The fact there are “talks” with the US in the first place indicates a fundamental lack of leverage on Iran’s part;

▪️The US will not be withdrawing from the region, nor will US-backed proxies be rolled back and eliminated – instead the US and its proxies will simply rebuild, rearm, and reorganize their approach ahead of an inevitable renewed conflict…

… if there is even a significant pause to begin with;

▪️The US has already attacked Iran, paused a year, attacked again, paused a year and attacked again – in 2024 (via Israel), 2025, and again this year – nothing yet has been done by Iran to break this cycle, just survive it;

▪️Iran “controlling” the Strait of Hormuz is moot if the economic damage it causes advances US interests in placing the rest of Asia under energy dependence on the US – the only variable the US seeks to control is the speed & severity of the damage caused – this “MOU” allows the US to manage and slow it down;

▪️A US defeat would look like the full withdrawal of US troops from the region, the elimination of or reconciliation with its most dangerous proxies in the region, and iron clad security guarantees for Iran (via allies like Russia and China) – anything short of this means future conflict is inevitable;

▪️In other words, future conflict is inevitable;

https://t.me/brianlovethailand/4986