Mystery of the Green Zone drones

Who was behind the assassination bid against the Iraqi PM?

Three unidentified drones attack the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in the Green Zone, the most fortified location not only in Baghdad but the entire Middle East. They fire missiles that lightly injure three of his guards while he miraculously survives, as related by official accounts. Thus does the latest episode unfold in Iraq.

The government identified its suspected culprit before investigations into the incident had even begun. A spokesman for the National Security Council accused “the criminal armed groups who mistakenly thought the government’s restraint and the professionalism of the armed forces was weakness and are now targeting the government and its leaders.” This means, in official parlance, that pro-Iranian factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are being held responsible.

The incident comes at a time of rising political tensions throughout Iraq following the recent parliamentary elections. This vote was brought forward in order to bolster stability in the country. But it had precisely the opposite effect, leading to accusations of fraud and deepening political divisions not just on a national level but within the Shia and Sunni sects. Fragmentation is the order of the day so as to weaken everyone – replaying an old American game.

The day before the drone strike there were bloody clashes at the entrance to the Green Zone between PMF members protesting against the election results (the PMF lost two thirds of it seats in parliament) and security forces using live ammunition. Two demonstrators were reportedly killed and seven injured.

There are three possible explanations for this failed assassination attempt.

First, that one or more PMF factions carried out the attack, as officially accused, as a warning to Kadhimi that they have a long arm that can even reach into his home, and that they will not hesitate to avenge their ‘martyrs’ gunned down by the security forces during their ‘peaceful’ protest.

The second possibility is that agencies loyal to Kadhemi fabricated the incident in order to gain him public sympathy, help him win a second term as prime minister, and rally regional and international support both for himself and the results of the elections he oversaw.

The third is that the US has plans for expunging the PMF factions to prevent a recurrence of the Lebanese Hezbollah scenario in Iraq, and wants to use the assassination attempt — which may have been staged by itself or one of its clients – as justification for putting them into action.

Those who accuse the PMF – including the Saudi media – point to remarks by Qais al-Khazaali, leader of the Asaeb Ahl al-Haq faction, to the effect that nobody is interested in killing a prime minister whose term has expired, that they have more effective and cheaper ways of targeting him if they wanted to, and they will not let the blood of their martyrs go unaccounted for.

Those who believe the staged-attack theory note that the Election Commission has just upheld the disputed election results and think Kadhimi contrived the incident so he could use it to push them through and form a new government with parliamentary backing from groups not under Iranian influence.

Those who suspect an American plot to create a pretext to disarm the PMF, which has repeatedly exchanged blows with US forces, point to signs that Washington is dragging its feet about pulling its remaining troops out of the country in line with the last Iraqi parliament’s demand. Indeed, it was reported on Sunday that the US had redeployed 250 heavy military vehicles from their bases in Syria to Iraq.

The US is hoping to keep Kadhimi in power with the support of three parliamentary groupings: the Sadrists, former (Sunni) parliament speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi’s bloc and Kurdish chieftain Masoud Barzani’s party. The biggest impediment to this is the PMF, hence the need to eliminate or weaken it and remove it from positions of influence.

Kadhimi, who accused the PMF of mistaking his restraint for weakness, risks making the same mistake himself by underestimating his adversary’s power. The same can be said of his principal supporter the US. Any attempt to disarm the PMF would be a declaration of war on Iran, a gamble which most observers concur has a much greater chance of failure than success.

Iraq is facing even greater chaos and the prospect of civil war. The assassination attempt on Kadhimi, whether genuine or fake (a crime to be condemned in either case), could prove to be the trigger or fuse.

Mystery of the Green Zone drones