The Origins and Consequences of Brics Expansion

From Oct. 22-24, Russia will host the annual Brics summit in the city of Kazan. This meeting is intended to create an organization which, by mandate and structure, can challenge the US-led, rules-based international order and, in doing so, look to supplant US unilateralism with a multipolar reality that will define global geopolitics for the next century.

In a month’s time, Russia will convene the 16th Brics summit in the city of Kazan. Brics was formed in 2009 by four original members: Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa joined in 2010.

Encompassing 30% of the world’s land mass and 45% of its population, Brics was created to provide a forum for industrial powers that were excluded from the so-called “collective West” and their economic forum, the G7, an intergovernmental organization ostensibly made up of the world’s largest developed economies. However, China and India are the second- and fifth-largest economies in the world, and Brazil’s economy exceeds those of G7 members Canada and Italy.

For much of its history, Brics has also functioned as an informal gathering of the top economic powers of the so-called “Global South,” a term that broadly comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia (excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea) and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand).

Changing Nature

As initially organized, the Brics forum sought to avoid being seen as a competitor to either the G7 or its derivative, the G20 (which includes the Brics members in its ranks), opting instead to engage in informal consultation as opposed to formulating and implementing structured policy. Geopolitics, however, mandated a change in this stance. On Feb. 4, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, where they released a 5,000-plus word joint statement that signaled the beginning of an adversarial relationship between these two core Brics members and the “rules-based international order” that underpinned the foreign and national security of the US and, by extension, its partners in the G7 and Nato. The impetus for this meeting, and the joint statement, were the dual crises involving Ukraine and Taiwan that were interpreted by Russia and China, respectively, as being driven by polices of the US.

The statement was critical of “some actors representing but the minority on the international scale” who “continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing international issues.” Noting that the world was “entering a new era of rapid development and profound transformation,” the Russian and Chinese leaders emphasized the need for a “transformation of the global governance architecture and world order” that would lead to a “redistribution of power in the world.”

The joint statement highlighted three primary vectors for achieving this transformational change — the G20, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Brics. The G20 was an “important forum for discussing international cooperation issues,” the statement said, while the SCO helped shape “a polycentric world order based on the universally recognized principles of international law, multilateralism, equal, joint, indivisible, comprehensive and sustainable security.”

Both Russia and China recognized the role played by Brics in promoting expanded cooperation in three main areas: politics and security, economy and finance, and humanitarian exchanges. But Brics was limited in terms of the scope and scale of what it could accomplish, in terms of both global reach and organizational capacity. To position Brics to be a game changer on the world stage, significant work would have to be done regarding outreach and structure. This was seen as an ongoing effort, with no pressing timeline attached.

Geopolitical Driver

The war in Ukraine, however, changed everything. Literally overnight, Russia found itself facing a strategic effort by the US and its allies in Europe and the Pacific to undermine its economy through stringent sanctions and erode domestic confidence in its political leadership through diplomatic isolation and criticism. While the US and its allies condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, much of the Global South, although not supporting Russian actions, took a neutral stance.

The approach taken by the US and its allies reinforced Russia and China’s criticism of unilateralism. The effort to dictate economic priorities to the world, and the use of the international banking system for political ends by seizing Russian deposits, alienated many nations, which became concerned that, under different circumstances, such tactics could be employed against them.

Neither the G20 nor the SCO offered Russia and China structures capable of standing up to the US-dominated, rules-based international order. Brics, however, turned out to be the perfect venue for attempting to build from scratch a new world order capable of competing with what Russia and China viewed as the global hegemony of the US.

At the 14th Brics summit, hosted by China in 2022, Russia helped advance the idea of a new global reserve currency alongside China and other Brics nations as a potential challenge to the dominance of the US dollar — the first substantive push-back to the US-led order. Then, during the 15th Brics summit in 2023 headed by South Africa, the group underwent a major expansion, inviting six nations to join its ranks: Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Argentina. Buenos Aires declined to join, while Riyadh opted to forgo formal membership for now, while participating in all Brics functions as an invited state.

The Kazan Agenda

Russia assumed the chair of the newly expanded Brics forum in January 2024, and immediately set out an assertive agenda that emphasized the continued growth of the organization, in terms of both membership and organizational structure and capacity. Ahead of the Brics summit in Kazan, Russia has implemented more than 140 events in preparation. Given that Brics is a consensus-based forum, permanent structured mechanisms for policy coordination will be vital if the organization is to compete on the global stage with the likes of the G7. Building such structures has been Russia’s main objective during its chairmanship.

Russia is seeking to continue the trend of physically expanding Brics as well, extending invitations to the leaders of 36 nations to attend the Kazan summit. As of now, 18 have accepted, including Turkey, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Venezuela, Serbia and Algeria. While the exact list of nations that will receive formal invitations to join Brics in Kazan has not been finalized, the geopolitical ramifications of expansion are considerable. Turkish membership, for example, would create complications within the ranks of Nato.

Regardless of the results of Brics’ physical expansion, one thing seems certain — if Russia can bring into fruition the structural and organizational changes it has set in motion for the Kazan Summit, the group that will emerge could have formidable potential. Given the current trajectories of geopolitics, this would position Brics to become a more important international forum for economic, social and political issues in the years to come, potentially helping to advance the vision of a multipolar challenger to US unilateralism first laid out by Russia and China in Beijing in February 2022.

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