Ukraine’s Donbass Lines Collapsing – Russia’s Strategy of Attrition Comes Full Circle

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for May 5, 2024…

– Despite US arms package (along with packages from several European nations) Ukrainian defenses continue to crumble and Russian forces continue to gain ground;

– US-provided Ground Launched Small-Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) were meant to extend the range of HIMARS launched guided rockets from 70km to 150km, however, like GMLRS, GLSDBs have been rendered ineffective by Russian missile defenses and electronic warfare jamming;

– NATO and Ukrainian obsession with targeting Crimea and specifically the Crimean Bridge continues despite the strategic irrelevance of doing so;

– Ukrainian brigades continue to disintegrate, calls for building “additional brigades” which would take years are detached from reality;

– Meanwhile, Russia continues expanding military industrial production, increasing the gap between it and Ukraine’s Western backers compounding Ukraine’s strategic crisis;

– Western policy toward Ukraine at best reflects profound ignorance of how modern warfare and military industrial production actually work, at worst is cynically feeding all of Ukraine into a proxy war to maximize the cost of victory for Russia;

References:

BBC – Situation on frontline has worsened, Ukraine army chief says (April 28, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe…

The Guardian – Russia makes more gains around Avdiivka as Ukraine awaits US aid (April 28, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202…

Defense One – Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says (April 28, 2024):
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/20…

Newsweek – Crimea Rocked by Explosions as Bridge Shut: Reports (April 30, 2024):
https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-explo…

Forbes – The War-Weary 47th Mechanized Is Ukraine’s ‘Emergency Brigade.’ The Pentagon Is Rushing Replacement Vehicles To Keep The Exhausted Unit In The Fight. (April 30, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…

Foreign Affairs – American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine (May 2, 2024):
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain…

Al Jazeera – Russia ramps up weapons production for Ukraine war (May 1, 2024):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5…

Foreign Policy – How Kyiv Plans to Use American Aid (May 1, 2024):
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/01/…

Independent – The US will give $61bn to Ukraine. What does it mean for the war? (April 25, 2024):
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/…