As West Sends More Armor to Ukraine, Why “Turning the Tide” is still Fantasy

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 16, 2023.

– Russian forces are consolidating control over and around Soledar to the north of Bakhmut;

– Russian forces are also apparently preparing a much larger encirclement of Bakhmut itself;

– The United Kingdom, in addition to sending 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks has claimed it is sending 30 AS90 155mm self-propelled howitzers;

– The AS90 is lightly armored and vulnerable to a variety of Russian weapon systems including growing numbers of Lancet loitering munitions;

– The AS90 has a different engine and transmission than the M109s being sent by the US and other NATO members meaning yet another supply chain for spare parts must be created to sustain them on the battlefield;

– The UK only has 117 AS90s meaning London is sending up to 25% of their inventory to Ukraine;

– Claims that the UK is also sending AH-64 Apache attack helicopters appear to be false;

– Apache helicopters would face almost insurmountable logistical, training, and operational challenges in Ukraine;

– Russian military industrial output, even according to low-end estimates by anti-Russian sources indicate that Russia holds a dominant position regarding attrition warfare.

References:

Alexander Mercouris – Kiev Says Cannot Shoot Down Ballistic, Supersonic Missiles; WaPo Says Kiev May Retreat From Bakhmut:
https://youtu.be/uwQliMyrjPQ

Alex Christoforou – Kamala momentum. UK denies Mirror Apache story. WaPo, Bakhmut retreat. Maduro multipolar bloc. U/1:
https://youtu.be/m9TSd7cXHZk

Dmytro Kuleba on Twitter – (regarding Russian missile production):
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/stat…

UK Government – PM accelerates Ukraine support ahead of anniversary of Putin’s war:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm…

Army Recognition – UK will provide Ukraine AH-64 Apache tank killer attack helicopters:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defen…

Army Recognition – AS90 BRAVEHEART:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/unite…

UK Defence Journal – Work underway to replace AS-90 self propelled gun (2020):
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/work-…

Washington Post – Army’s Apache Helicopter Rendered Impotent in Kosovo (1999):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv…

CSIS – Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks?:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-un…

Novaya Gazeta – The barren barrels:
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022….

Defense News – Army acquisition chief would welcome tank ramp-up if Congress funds it:
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022…