American Meddling Could Disrupt Myanmar’s Fragile Chinese-Mediated Peace Process

Whichever way one cuts it, the US is the most disruptive force in this process, and it has every reason to sabotage its systemic rival’s peace talks for divide-and-rule purposes in the New Cold War.

The Diplomat reported on Myanmar’s latest round of peace talks in Kunming in their article titled “Myanmar Military, Resistance Alliance Sign China-Brokered Agreement”, which hyperlinks to a Chinese- and Kachin-language text of the “Three Brotherhood Alliance’s” (3BA) statement. The top takeaways are that the 3BA and the military (known as the Tatmadaw) will safeguard Chinese interests, mutually disengage from the frontlines, and share revenue from a border crossing at a 70/30 ratio respectively.

Additional details include the Tatmadaw recognizing one of the rebel groups as the governing force in the Kokang special region and both sides continuing talks on how to divide proceeds from another border crossing that constitutes the lion’s share of trade with China. This and other issues will be addressed during the next round of talks in April. Unaware readers can learn about this very complex conflict by reviewing this analysis here that was published on its two-year anniversary last month.

The relevant insight is that the latest phase of this decades-long civil war isn’t as simple as American-backed “democratic” rebels fighting against a Chinese-aligned “autocratic” government like some have thought. The analysis proves that China actually has close ties with some of the 3BA and its relations with the Tatmadaw aren’t as solid as many outside observers assumed. It was precisely because of this true state of affairs that Beijing was able to mediate January’s ceasefire that led to March’s agreement.

Both warring parties profit from trade with that country, which serves as the common denominator between them given the speculative support (military, logistical, intelligence, organizational) that the US provides the 3BA via Thailand and the Tatmadaw’s pivot towards Russia to reduce dependence on China. The outcome of these latest talks shows that there’s a shared desire among all three to get bilateral trade back on track alongside exploring a sustainable political resolution to this long-running conflict.

It’s too early to predict whether the ceasefire will continue to hold and the fragile Chinese-mediated peace process will evolve into something more serious, however, since three principle variables remain uncertain. The 3BA might feel encouraged by potentially forthcoming promises of American support to break the ceasefire, the Tatmadaw might strike first due to those two’s security dilemma (especially if it catches wind of the aforesaid), and the US might exploit a recent event to openly interfere in this war.

The first is premised on speculation that the 3BA’s 1027 offensive from late October couldn’t have achieved its unprecedented gains without external military, logistical, intelligence, and organizational support that might have mirrored the US’ Ukrainian proxy war model. As for the second, these dynamics are typical of conflicts where both sides deeply distrust the other. The last, meanwhile, involves the US charging a Yakuza boss with trying to smuggle nuclear materials from Myanmar to Iran.

All three variables share the common denominator of American meddling. In the order that they were mentioned above: the US could try to “win back” the speculative loyalty of the 3BA after China’s latest economically driven diplomatic gains with those groups; this Damocles’ sword, irrespective of whether it materializes, could push the Tatmadaw to act first in order to obtain a military edge; and the US could exploit these nuclear allegations to stage cross-border raids or openly back other rebels against both.

To elaborate on the last of these three, while the indictment didn’t mention which group was accused of selling nuclear materials to the Yakuza, US Government-funded Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently cited media reports to implicate Restoration Council of Shan State chairman Yawd Serk, who denied involvement. He said that his group, which controls territory along the Thai border, only discussed this possibility with a “foreigner” but never procured the materials like the indictment alleges.

Of paramount importance however is that RFA’s cited media report claimed that “The story raises more questions than answers – particularly given Yawd Serk’s chummy visits to Nay Pyi Taw since the coup – the most pressing of which is where the nuclear materials came from. The saga also marks the emphatic return of the nuclear spectre to Myanmar, following on from last year’s announcement that Russia would help the junta to build a nuclear power plant.”

This US Government-funded outlet’s promotion of that report can be interpreted as tacitly lending it credence ahead of what might be one of two possible scenarios that aren’t mutually exclusive. The first is that America plans cross-border raids from Thailand against members of Serk’s group on the pretext of their involvement in a nuclear Russiagate scandal while the second is that it openly backs other rebels against them, the Tatmadaw, and/or the increasingly Chinese-aligned 3BHA on similar pretexts.

After all, it’s no small matter that RFA linked to a report hinting that “the emphatic return of the nuclear spectre to Myanmar” might be connected to Russia, so this innuendo should be taken very seriously by observers. If the 3BA can’t be swayed back to America’s side and the Tatmadaw isn’t manipulated by the security dilemma into breaking the ceasefire first, then the fragile Chinese-mediated peace process is less likely to fail, unless of course the US resorts to either or both of the abovementioned scenarios.

The latest phase of Myanmar’s decades-long civil war has reached a crucial moment whereby Beijing will either succeed in gradually bringing the most important domestic stakeholders close together or this promising opportunity will be lost as a result of the multifaceted American meddling that was explained. Whichever way one cuts it, the US is the most disruptive force in this process, and it has every reason to sabotage its systemic rival’s peace talks for divide-and-rule purposes in the New Cold War.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/american-meddling-could-disrupt-myanmars