Will Trump attack Iran at dawn on Sunday?

What can we expect from the war’s beginning, finish, and surprises? What does the confirmation of Russian and Chinese military operations in the Strait of Hormuz mean?*

The media and social media platforms are swamped with news sources forecasting American aggression against Iran in the early hours, if not minutes, of Sunday morning. They discuss a range of scenarios, from a full-fledged war targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities to a limited strike aimed at preserving Trump’s image. Trump has committed to launching a massive military operation against Iran and has dispatched two aircraft carriers and more than seven warships to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean near the Iranian border.

This is not the first time “leaks” about the timetable of American aggression have circulated; the likelihood of their inaccuracy and unreliability is considerable, as in other cases. There might be an attempt to intensify pressure on Iran to engage in negotiations as part of an American endeavour to find a diplomatic solution that would enable Trump to step down from his mistakenly elevated position. High-level official comments indicate that the Iranian response will be robust, thorough, and painful.

All previous American-Israeli aggressions against Iran, the most recent of which was a 12-day war in June last year, accompanied by fervent protests in the Iranian streets, failed to achieve the majority of their goals, the most notable of which were the overthrow of Iran’s Islamic regime and the destruction of its nuclear facilities and advanced military industries, particularly medium- or long-range missile systems. The expected aggression may not be “more fortunate” and could be worse for the offenders. This is why President Trump is still hesitant to keep his promises and authorise his aircraft carriers and bombers to launch an attack.

The Iranian spiritual and military leadership has planned a forceful and unparalleled response to any American invasion, whether wide, limited, or swift. Several Iranian officials, including the Iranian army’s spokesperson, Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami, have confirmed that as soon as the first American missile arrives, all American bases in the region (55 bases with 70,000 American soldiers) will be targeted with hundreds, if not thousands, of missiles and drones in the initial wave. Unlike the previous war, we will not consent to a swift ceasefire. The new Iranian strategy entails using all military capabilities (one-third of which were employed in reaction to the previous assault) and causing huge human and material losses.

General Ali Shamkhani, the chief advisor to Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, was the most explicit in confirming that Tel Aviv would be the primary and initial target of the bombing, regardless of whether Israel participated in the attack, as well as American bases on the western side of the Gulf, specifically in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.

The Iranian leadership’s statement that it performed military manoeuvres with all weaponry in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, February 1, involving Chinese and Russian forces, as well as Iranian forces, is the most compelling confirmation of what we previously stated. This sends a powerful message to both Washington and Tel Aviv, emphasising that Iran will not be alone in this conflict, and retaliation will be both military and economic. This means closing the Strait of Hormuz, preventing thousands of petrol tankers and approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day from reaching global consumer markets, potentially raising prices to more than a hundred or even two hundred dollars, depending on the initial outcomes of this war, its duration, and its scope, whether broad or limited in its fields.

When the two largest factions in the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), Al-Nujaba and Hezbollah Iraq, confirm that they will fight alongside Iran, and when the Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Sheikh Naim Qassem, asserts that his party will not remain neutral and will fight in support of the “Guardian Jurist” and his army, and when the experienced Yemeni movement “Ansar Allah” declares that its missiles will strike all aircraft carriers in the Red and Arab

The participation of Lebanon’s “Hezbollah” in the war and the positioning of its forces in the Iranian trenches, as expected, means bombarding the occupying state and its settlers with thousands of precise and regular missiles over a very short distance of no more than 50 kilometres, which is only a stone’s throw away. The Popular Mobilisation Forces might undertake a dangerous ground offensive, deploying hundreds of thousands of militants to Israel’s borders in Jordan and Syria to storm them and reach the heart of the occupied Palestinian cities.

We contend that the current mediation, which aims to save Trump from his predicament and is being carried out by Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will likely fail because the Iranians trust neither it nor the Americans, given their memories of broken American promises. They say they won’t abandon their goals, nuclear projects, or uranium enrichment; their missile systems are “sacred” and non-negotiable; and they won’t be scared by the US military’s carrier and cruiser buildup.

When Chinese and Russian forces participate alongside Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, even if only symbolically, it confirms our previous assertions that the Iranian military establishment has received advanced missiles, aircraft, and military technology from both countries, particularly China, to fill gaps in its air defences and enhance its response capabilities against any potential threats.

Finally, we urge President Trump to refrain from succumbing to Israeli pressure and engaging his nation in a conflict that could lead to a significant military and moral setback, damage his reputation, and potentially result in his personal isolation and trial. If this battle breaks out, it will be far from short, quick, or tidy, with tremendous human casualties for his forces. It is not an American war but rather an Israeli one, to protect Netanyahu and the global Zionist movement from the consequences of slaughter, hunger, and ethnic cleansing in Gaza.

Iran, honourable Muslims, and Arabs will transform the geography of the Middle East, not Benjamin Netanyahu, who will fail to accomplish his biblical prophecy of building greater Israel. Rather, we, the salt of the land, will build Greater Palestine on the remains of his entity. Our breath is lengthy, as is our patience… The days are passing us by.

Will Trump attack Iran at dawn on Sunday?

* The military operations have been postponed