Will Israel go all-out against Lebanon?

The war rhetoric is getting hysterical, but the consequences could be fatal

The fires raging in the north of occupied Palestine over the past few days due to Hezbollah drone strikes — which Israeli emergency teams have been struggling to control since Saturday — have heated up the South Lebanon front and increased the prospect of all-out war.

Naim Qasem, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s deputy and sometimes described as his ‘prime minister’, made a surprise appearance on Al Jazeera on Tuesday (for the first time in many years) to reveal that over the past two months, the party has been conveyed numerous warnings of an impending large-scale Israeli offensive.

Its response was unambiguous: the Lebanese front is inextricably connected to Gaza. “The resistance does not seek to expand the circle of war with Israel, but it is ready if it is imposed on it, and will not permit Israel to achieve victory,” Qasem said.

A climate of war is in the air, and Hezbollah appears fully prepared for it. In his last three speeches, Nasrallah strongly criticised the US-backed Lebanese parties that justify Israel’s aggression against their country and condemn the resistance, even encouraging an all-out assault that could be blamed on Hezbollah.

Qasem’s appearance on Al Jazeera, and his affirmation that any Israeli war on Lebanon will be fiercely confronted, was a warning to Israel’s war cabinet. One of its members, former general Benny Gantz, called for it convene on Tuesday evening to discuss responding to the fires in the north that have ravaged many settlements and occupied towns and sent yet more settlers fleeing southwards.

The war rhetoric against Lebanon has risen to new heights in the past few days and reached hysterical proportions. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded the burning and destruction of all Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. Fellow terrorist Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, demanded the war cabinet go on the offensive: “Now is the time for action. The time for talking is over.”

They key questions are who will start such a war, what will the trigger be, and how will the Lebanese Islamic resistance respond?

It is certain that only Israel would start a war. It cannot stand the huge losses it has sustained from Hezbollah’s rolling missile and drone attacks, which led to the evacuation of some 200,000 settlers from the upper and lower Galilee regions even before the latest fires.

The timing of the start of any war is obviously a military secret which cannot be predicted. The element of surprise is key. But going by the available information, the deliberate leaks to the media, and the military and moral impact on the occupation state of Hezbollah’s operations, it could be very soon.

On Tuesday, Lebanon’s al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, reported that several European countries have warned Lebanese officials that a massive Israeli assault on the country is forthcoming. They include the UK, which did not just convey the warning, but added that the attack is being planned for mid-June, and will devastate the country’s infrastructure and parts of Beirut.

The paper also reported that after visiting Doha, Walid Junblatt told visitors he sensed the Qataris are fearful of Israeli war plans against Lebanon, and that given their closeness as mediators to decision-makers in Washington, those fears should be taken seriously.

I can add from my own sources that some Gulf countries, including Qatar, approached the Syrian government about the possibility of using Damascus airport to evacuate their citizens from Lebanon should Beirut airport be destroyed. The Syrians, as always expected, responded positively.

I cannot predict whether, when, or how an all-out Israeli war to destroy Lebanon may begin. But I can say that if it does, it would be the beginning of the end for the State of Israel. The missile retaliation from Hezbollah would be utterly devastating — and despite all we have seen, it has not even begun to use all the tools in its arsenal.

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