What next for Asad?

Will the deposed Syrian president retire from politics, or lead resistance from exile?

Events have unfolded rapidly before and since the Syrian capital fell to armed opposition forces without resistance. The Syrian army, under orders from its commander-in-chief, decided not to engage in battle to avoid bloodshed, acknowledging defeat in the face of a tripartite aggression that was carefully planned behind closed doors in Washington, Ankara, and Tel Aviv.

Russia’s announcement that President Bashar al-Asad and his family had arrived in Moscow and were granted political asylum suggests the surprise developments we are witnessing now may only be the tip of an iceberg. Many more surprises could follow, on a number of levels. Syria is a jungle of weapons, and the regime’s sudden surrender could merely be a manoeuvre — as in Iraq after the army collapsed in the face of the US invasion — aimed at regrouping, bending to the storm, and preparing to resist the occupation.

The fall of Damascus is a deadly blow to Russia, which is loathed Syria’s new rulers. They view it as a strategic ally of the deposed regime whose airstrikes played a major part in the Syrian army’s recapture of most of the towns and villages taken by opposition forces backed by the US, Europe, and Turkey.

It is not known what Asad is planning for the immediate future. Will he resort to passivity and eschew political activity in line with the norms of political asylum? Or will he make Moscow his base for running a resistance movement he forms and leads in exile?

There have been reports that Russia and other countries supportive of the ousted Syrian president are urging him to form a government-in-exile to avoid recognising whatever new administration is formed to run the country and fill the political vacuum until general elections are held.

This news has not been verified, and it is probably too early to try to predict future events in Syria. It has only been a day since Damascus fell and Asad took refuge in Moscow, and the picture in Syria remains obscure. Damascus and other major Syrian cities were subjected to an onslaught by armed Syrian opposition factions on behalf of the US, Turkey, and Arab states, unlike the direct US invasion of Iraq in 2003 which involved 160,000 troops and culminated in the appointment of an American military governor of Iraq for an interim period.

Unfortunately, we can take no issue with Benjamin Netanyahu’s boast that the fall of Damascus is a major victory for Israel in which it played a key part. Damascus was the jewel in the crown of the Axis of Resistance, a major supporter of the Palestinian cause, and a stubborn opponent of normalisation.

The question that remains is whether Netanyahu will continue celebrating for long. The days and months to come will provide an answer.

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