Israel’s threatened attack on Iran

Even the hawks fear the consequences of going all the way

What can be concluded from the many meetings held by Israel’s war cabinet to discuss its expected attack on Iran, and from US President Joe Biden’s submission to Benjamin Netanyahu’s pressure and their 45-minute phone conversation, is that the occupier-state is hesitant about taking the decision.

Its hawks fear the consequences, especially the inevitable and probably devastating Iranian retaliation employing hundreds of hypersonic missiles and precision drones.

We do not know what was said in the Biden-Blinken call, which is a military secret and does not trust the leaks that have been published about it. What we do know is that its purpose was to agree on the attack’s targets and timings and the US role in it should Biden yield to Netanyahu’s threat-laden requests (as he has done on all previous comparable occasions, especially the wars on Gaza and Lebanon).

With regard to the targets on which the attack is to focus, there are two options: a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil and gas infrastructure, which would amount to a declaration of a broad regional war; or an agreed-upon ‘pro-forma’ attack to avoid such a war, which the US fears out of concern for its bases and military and economic interests in the Middle East, and for the future existence of the Zionist entity.

There are more than 50 US military bases in and around the Arab world housing more than 40,000 personnel. Overt US intervention in support of an Israeli attack on Iran would put all those bases — especially in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Gulf states — in danger of being destroyed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqji’s latest regional tour — taking in Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in turn — was aimed at establishing indirect contact with the US to seek ways of averting the threatened Israeli attack. His last stop, Qatar, has close ties to the Biden administration and played a major role in the US-sponsored negotiations held in Doha and Cairo over the past ten months under the guise of seeking a cease-fire in Gaza. It is wise to pursue all options, but that does not mean being unprepared for war.

Netanyahu is currently behaving like a gambler who stakes his all in the hope of recouping his losses, but just ends up losing more and becoming bankrupt. The threatened attack on Iran is his last card. It would be the greatest achievement of his political life to drag the US into a war on Iran to fulfil his dream of destroying its nuclear capabilities and the petroleum industry which is its major source of income.

Netanyahu is contemptuous of Biden, despite his avowed Zionism and ample services to Israel in the form of arms supplies and financial and political support. It would therefore not be surprising if the Israeli premier were to ignore the US president’s pleadings to de-intensify his planned attack and avoid targeting nuclear and oil facilities which would trigger a massive Iranian response. Netanyahu could proceed regardless of his destructive plans. He has always managed to impose his will on Biden and shown it who is the real incumbent of the White House.

War is deception, and a surprise attack is half a victory. It is therefore difficult to predict when it might start. Iran should have initiated it with a pre-emptive strike on Israeli infrastructure. But we know Iran does not want to be the one to start such a decisive war. We also know its retaliation will be painful and considered, with the participation of all components of the Resistance Axis on six fronts, and employing all kinds of weapons, known and secret.

With the launch of the first F-35s to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities — in deep mountain silos impervious to US one-ton bombs — and the first missiles to destroy its oil and gas infrastructure, barrages of ballistic and ultrasonic missies will hurl down on Israel’s main airports, cities, power and water plants, and ports. Others will close the Strait of Hormuz, and target US bases in the region. That expectation is based on statements by Iranian leaders themselves, and the country is reported to possess 3,000 hypersonic missiles which can reach Haifa in 12 minutes.

Netanyahu would emerge as the biggest loser despite his forthcoming wars and steps. He would enter history as the leader who set the stage for the collapse of Zionist enterprise, as well as the perpetrator of genocidal warfare in Gaza, Lebanon, and maybe elsewhere.

The coming ten days will be decisive. They may change all the region’s power balances and political boundaries, drawing a new map for the Middle East in which there is no place for an occupier state or US bases.

https://www.raialyoum.com/israels-threatened-attack-on-iran/