How probable is it that Assad will return?

What role does Moscow play, and why are Israel, Lebanon, and Turkey the most vulnerable?

The global news agency “Reuters” broadcasted a very lengthy report (at least 2,500 words) about a movement being undertaken by five supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who have been planning for some time to stage a coup to overthrow the current regime led by interim President Ahmad al-Shara and restore the previous regime to power, if not throughout Syria, then at least in the Alawite areas of the northern coast.

According to the agency, citing stolen material, General Kamal Hassan, head of military intelligence during President Bashar al-Assad’s tenure, and billionaire Rami Makhlouf, the president’s cousin, are at the vanguard of this operation. They invest tens of millions of euros to fund military groups that carry out their orders and are armed not just in the Alawite parts of Syria’s coast but also in Lebanon. According to “Reuters”, some 55,000 people have joined Makhlouf’s militia, most of them Alawites, and 12,000 have joined Kamal Hassan’s force. A financial network with offices in Moscow, Abu Dhabi, and Lebanon manages the finances and distributes funds to the aforementioned groups.

The most concerning piece of information that piqued our interest was that Mr Ahmad al-Shami, the governor of Tartus to whom Reuters attributed the information, confirmed that there are 14 underground secret command rooms as well as dozens of secret weapon depots that were built before the regime fell on the Syrian coast. The current Damascus authorities are aware of their existence and is ready to tackle them. President al-Shara appointed Khaled al-Ahmar (an Alawite) as his friend and ally, and the two prepared to overthrow the regime and enter Damascus to fight this new movement.

Based on our extensive experience in journalism, we do not rule out the possibility that the majority, if not all, of the information in this report comes from Mr. Al-Shami, the current governor of Tartus, who is in charge of maintaining security along Syria’s Shiite coast, possibly with the assistance of some global intelligence agencies, primarily American.

The obvious issue is why this leak is happening now, one year after the Assad regime fell. What role does Russia play in hosting the two men in Moscow, alongside President Bashar Assad and his brother Maher Assad? Mr. Makhlouf now lives openly at the magnificent Radisson Hotel in the centre of the capital; he has grown a beard, has become religious, and uses verses from the Holy Quran in conversation. He considers himself the divinely appointed saviour of Syria, specifically the Alawite sect.

We can summarise potential responses to all these questions as follows:

• First, the political, economic, security, and living situations in the “new Syria” are not reassuring, and most Syrians’ anger is rising a year after the regime’s demise. The leak of this information may be a request for assistance from the new Syrian authorities to their Western allies, particularly the US, to prevent the return of the previous regime and its militias. Attempts to bring the regime closer to the Israeli occupation state and appease it, as well as the refusal to respond to Israeli violations of Syrian territory, have met with strong opposition. The Israeli air force has conducted over 500 strikes on Syrian targets, including the Ministry of Defence headquarters and the General Staff building in the heart of Damascus. More ominously, the group has captured the majority of southern Syria and Mount Hermon, set up inspection centres on Damascus’ outskirts, and incited violence in Sweida.

• Third, the focus on the Alawite identity is a reaction to the new Syrian leaders highlighting Sunni identity since they took control in Damascus, as well as the violent attacks by some of their supporters against minority groups like the Alawites on the northern coast and the Druze in Sweida, and the exclusion of all opposition groups and their leaders from having any role in the government.

• Fourth, President Trump’s administration has fully supported Israel’s plan in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which includes the occupation of southern Syria and airstrikes. This government went much farther, ordering jets to target Syrian Islamic groups’ locations, which are part of a resistance project against Israeli occupation. It has never condemned Netanyahu and his foreign and military ministers’ provocative excursions to southern Syria, as well as Israeli bombings and massacres in this region and on Mount Hermon’s slopes.

• Fifth, the Russian approach is characterised by ambiguity and possibly deception, which serves Russian interests in the region. If the information in the Reuters story concerning the movement of Assad’s allies and family to remove the current regime in Damascus and allow them to leave is right, it implies the presence of an “indirect” Russian blessing. Mr. Ahmed Al-Shami, the governor of Tartus in charge of the coast and the Russian naval and air bases in the region, revealed that during his visit to Moscow, President Al-Shar’ complained to President Putin about Mr Makhlouf and Hassan’s movements from Russian territory to destabilise his government in Damascus and requested that guarantors not provide any assistance to them or the former regime’s soldiers.

• Sixth: Turkish-Russian relations are at a high point these days for various reasons, including Turkey’s actions in Syria without direct coordination with Moscow, its greater alignment with the Ukrainian side, and allowing Ukrainian drones to destroy two Russian oil tankers in the Bosphorus Strait. Does Moscow intend to convey an “initial” protest message to Ankara by indirectly supporting Assad’s men?

• Seventh, the establishment of any Alawite state on the northern coast will pose a direct threat to “Sunni” Turkey, which supported the overthrow of the Damascus regime and assisted it politically, militarily, and diplomatically. We must call attention to the fact that the Alawite sect has between 15 and 25 million adherents in eastern Turkey.

• Eighth, former President Bashar al-Assad has not largely resigned himself to living in Russian exile indefinitely, as Reuters reported from sources close to him. According to sources close to him, he still considers himself Syria’s legitimate president and has never surrendered power.

In conclusion, we believe that the new year may mark the beginning of significant changes in Syria and Lebanon, given the escalating and “ambitious” movements of supporters and figures from the former regime, the rising joint activities of the Islamic group and the Lebanese resistance in southern Syria against the Israeli occupation, its military breaches of Syrian sovereignty, and the accompanying massacres, as well as the confirmation provided by its Defence.

We cannot count out Greater Syria, seeing unprecedented levels of disorder, weapons, and conflict in the majority of its regions. If such an incident occurs, the Israeli occupation state and the United States may be the most affected and may face severe consequences for their destructive ambitions. The flames of this turmoil will spread to other Arab countries, particularly Lebanon, Jordan, and some Gulf states. God knows best

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