Mearsheimer, Nasr: What Comes Next in Iran?

Hardly a day goes by without another indication that the international order is in flux. But as the war in Iran enters a new phase, some questions are becoming increasingly urgent.

What do we know about the emerging Iranian-Omani discussions over the Strait of Hormuz? What might they mean for the future control and security of the strait? And what more can Donald Trump do to secure an outcome that could plausibly be called an American victory?

Then there is the internal struggle within Iran. How deep is the divide between hardliners, who oppose negotiations with Washington and favour pursuing complete victory, and supporters of President Masoud Pezeshkian and the powerful parliamentary speaker who is also serving as Iran’s chief negotiator? Who currently has the upper hand? And is the regime in danger of overplaying its hand?

Finally, what should we make of the new joint defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan? Three of the world’s most powerful Sunni Muslim nations — one of them a NATO member — have agreed that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on all. What lies behind the pact, and what does it tell us about the emerging balance of power in the Middle East?

And what to make of Israel’s rejection of a US-backed plan aimed at a phased disarmament of Hamas in Gaza?

John Mearsheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author, most recently, of How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy.

Vali Nasr is Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History.