Iran may not initiate the war.. but it will undoubtedly end it

Trump is looking to Turkey’s mediator to find an exit… Will he find it with Erdogan, and how?

All of America’s military buildup to deliver a strong military strike against Iran is part of a “psychological war” to intimidate it and pressure it to return to the negotiating table in submission and compliance with American conditions, the most prominent of which are abandoning its advanced missile systems and permanently halting all uranium enrichment activities. However, extortion and psychological warfare will not achieve the desired goals.

President Trump’s use of aircraft carriers accompanied by battleships to intimidate enemies is an outdated military tactic that is no longer effective against major regional powers such as Iran, which has made substantial progress toward military self-sufficiency and the development of advanced missile and drone industries, as well as submarines. Iran has faced 45 years of sanctions and over three attempts to alter its regime.

Iran does not seek a conflict, but it will certainly retaliate with all of its military capabilities against any American-Israeli aggression against it. The Iranians’ most powerful weapon is their long endurance and ability to engage in a comprehensive, long-term war, which completely contradicts the new American doctrine that can be summarised in three words: “Fast… Short… Clean,” which here means avoiding any human or material losses.

General Amir Hatami, the commander of the Iranian army, made a rare statement confirming the addition of more than a thousand new drones to the air force arsenal to attack American land and naval targets, whether stationary or moving, including aircraft carriers.

However, in our judgement, the most significant and hazardous statement was made by General Ali Shamkhani (a Sunni Arab), a key counsellor to Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution. He stated, “The Iranian response to any American aggression, whether extensive or a limited strike, will be by bombing Greater Tel Aviv, as it would mean the beginning of a comprehensive war.”

We believe that this statement is dangerous because it was issued at the request of Mr Khamenei and represents an Iranian strategy whose details were agreed upon during meetings of the ruling elite and its spiritual, political, military, and legislative institutions held at the highest levels recently.

Iran will not face Israeli aggression alone; it will be supported by its regional allies, as well as the honourable people of the Arab and Islamic worlds. This can be summarised as the following points:

• First, Sheikh Naim Qassem, the secretary general of “Hezbollah,” declared that the Islamic Resistance would not remain neutral in the face of American aggression and would fight alongside Iran and the Supreme Leader. Mr Nawaf al-Moussawi, one of the party’s key leaders, hinted that he does not rule out joining the battle when asked whether the party will participate directly, stating, “When we reach that bridge, we will decide.”

• Secondly, the Yemeni movement “Ansar Allah,” which bombed the occupying state and its major cities, such as Jaffa, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Beersheba, and Eilat, in solidarity with the fighters in Gaza and the West Bank, issued a statement confirming that its forces and missiles would not allow any aircraft carriers or warships to approach the waters of the Red and Arabian Seas.

• Third, two Iraqi jihadist organisations, including the most significant arms of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces, confirmed their participation in the fight, vowing to confront any American-Israeli invasion and stand in solidarity with Iran. The first statement came from the “Hezbollah Brigades” in Iraq, which called for a comprehensive war alongside Iran. This country has supported the oppressed for four decades and championed national causes without regard for sectarian or ethnic differences, according to an official statement. Mr. Akram al-Kaabi, Secretary-General of the “Nujaba Movement”, has stated that “the people of Iraq will not stand idly by in any war waged by America against Iran.”

America will initiate this war for the benefit of and on behalf of “Israel”, which is afraid and frightened by Iranian military capabilities, as well as rockets from “Hezbollah” and the “Ansar Allah” movement. The same is true for many Arab countries, which will bear the costs in terms of security, stability, and infrastructure. We are referring to countries that host American bases and will likely face Iranian retribution, including Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia did correctly when it stated unequivocally that it would not allow the United States to use its airspace or territory in any attack on Iran. It is regrettable that many of the other countries named above did not take a similar stand and instead kept mute, possibly because they lack the decision-making authority to prevent planes from taking off from their bases toward Iran.

We still consider it possible that President Trump may reverse his threats at the last minute, not just because he is “cowardly,”, but also because he is afraid of the consequences. This reversal may be at the express request of “Israel,” which pleaded with him to postpone the strike two weeks ago out of concern for the tremendous human and material destruction envisaged by the inevitable Iranian retaliation.

Trump is waiting for a call from Iran or one of the middlemen, the latest being Erdogan’s Turkey. They claim Iran has accepted negotiations, but only on its own terms. The first step is to reply to its request to stop the threats by ordering the aircraft carriers and battleships to return to their original locations.

The Iranian military forces have no option but to participate in this battle, but they will determine the conclusion since they are not at their lowest point, as alleged by Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State. On the contrary, many observers believe they are at their strongest point, particularly after quelling riots incited by America and Israel by an army of their agents. They also survived the 12-day conflict because the cost of surrender is far greater than the cost of perseverance and fighting for dignity and sovereignty. The heroic martyr dies once; the coward dies a hundred times.

Iran may not initiate the war.. but it will undoubtedly end it