Trump’s Canadian Fixation

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state of the US. While some, including the Trump administration’s nominee as ambassador to Canada, former Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra, contend that Trump is joking, an anonymous White House official has insisted that the 51st-state concept is a serious proposal reflective of a fundamental policy shift premised on concepts of “fortress America” that place homeland defense ahead of trans-Atlantic security — effectively moving away from the traditional rules-based international order toward a neo-isolationist strategy. From the perspective of most Canadians — officials and citizens alike — Trump’s fixation on annexation is insulting and, if allowed to proceed unchecked, would represent a serious threat to Canadian national security. Whether through military force (unlikely, although Trump has not ruled it out) or simply weakening the Canadian economy to the point that annexation might become a more viable option than independence, Trump has put US-Canadian relations in a crisis mode unparalleled since the 19th century.

The first time Trump mentioned the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state of the US was on Nov. 30, 2024, during an impromptu dinner with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago country club, where the two discussed Trump’s previous threats to impose tariffs on Canada as one of his first acts as president. Trump referred to the dinner in a social media post on Dec.10, 2024, noting that he had referred to Trudeau as “governor” and that Canada should become “the 51st state.” Both Trudeau and Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc, who was present at the dinner, viewed Trump’s words at the time as “in no way a serious comment.”

Time has shown that these initial impressions were far off the mark. In a recent interview with Laura Ingraham, a Fox News host, Trump’s attitude toward Canada took on a serious, even sinister, tone, with the president commenting that “I deal with every country, indirectly or directly. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada.” Trump went on to declare that “Canada was meant to be the 51st state because we subsidize Canada by $200 billion a year.”

It should be noted that the US Trade Representative’s Office records the 2024 US goods trade deficit with Canada at $63.3 billion, with much of this driven by supplies of Canadian energy.

Trump has stated that, from his perspective, the US did not need anything Canada offered in the way of resources. “We don’t need anything that they give. We do it because we want to be helpful.” Trump has argued that Canada would be much better off as part of the US, in which case there would be no tariffs. This sentiment was reinforced by a White House spokeswoman, who noted: “As President Trump has said, Canadians would benefit from lower taxes and secure borders as residents of America’s cherished 51st state.”

Trump’s aspirations aren’t simply a matter of rhetoric. “If you look at a map, they drew an artificial line right through it between Canada and the US, just a straight artificial line. Somebody did it a long time ago, many, many decades ago, and it makes no sense,” Trump told Ingraham. “This would be the most incredible country visually.”

A History of Trouble

Canada has responded to Trump’s economic and verbal provocations with outrage and concern, with some officials believing there is a method to Trump’s madness, namely that the tariffs being imposed are designed to weaken the Canadian economy to build support among the Canadian population for US annexation.

The notion of Canada as a part of the US doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The Articles of Confederation, which served as the precursor to the current US Constitution as a founding document, declared that Canada “shall be admitted into, and entitled to all the advantages of this union.” Indeed, during the 1775-83 American Revolution, two attempts were made by US forces to invade Canada. Both failed, as did an additional effort during the War of 1812. During the US Civil War of 1861-65, the Union considered forcibly annexing Canada due to British support for the Confederacy, both in terms of recognizing the belligerent status of the South and by providing weapons and munitions.

Between 1837 and 1871, Irish-American insurgents launched a number of failed incursions into Canada with the goal of seizing power and using Canada as leverage for Irish home rule. And in 1927 the US Department of War prepared plans for a hypothetical conflict with the UK, which had the US invading Ontario, using poison gas against Nova Scotia, and cutting underwater cables connecting Canada to the British Isles.

The US officially recognized Canadian dominion of its territories in 1871, when the Anglo-American treaty of Washington was signed. This treaty, however, did not temper the desire of some Canadians to join the US. As early as 1840, some Canadians from Upper Canada (the predecessor of Ontario) believed they would get better democratic representation by joining with the US. The same sentiment drove US immigrants in Quebec to argue for annexation. And prior to becoming a Canadian province in 1871, British Columbians were preparing petitions to join the US. The 20th century saw political movements formed in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan which advocated union with the US on economic grounds (neither achieved any degree of popularity). Polling today shows such views still in a firm minority: Canadian polls this year have indicated that 80%-90% of Canadians reject the notion of becoming part of the US.

Trouble on the Horizon

A major problem for Canadians and their new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who took over from Trudeau on Mar. 14, is that Trump’s words have become official US policy, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently stating that “The president has made his argument as to why he thinks Canada would be better off joining the United States, for economic reasons.” Carney condemned Rubio’s statement as “crazy” and doubled down on his opposition to Trump’s vision of Canadian annexation by declaring “We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form, be part of the United States. America is not Canada.”

Carney has just announced snap elections, which are scheduled to take place at the end of April. But elections are a time when a nation is most vulnerable to political high jinks and games. Trump is known for his thin skin and vindictive nature. Moreover, he appears to have linked Canadian annexation to his “fortress America” strategy, which includes the annexation of both Greenland and the Panama Canal.

The issue has expanded beyond a matter of economic viability and has entered the realm of national security. With Trump moving to redefine the US-European strategic relationship in a manner that deemphasizes the importance of trans-Atlantic military relationships, the role played by Canada in shaping the security of “fortress America” will be of paramount importance. In addition to imposing crippling tariffs, Trump could put Canada in a position where it simply could not afford to not be without the security umbrella of the US. Canadian fears that Trump will seek to weaken Canada economically to generate support for annexation are not misplaced — but his efforts so far seem to be pushing Canadian political and public sentiment in the opposite direction. When it comes to the future of US-Canadian relations, there is trouble on the horizon.

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