West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine’s All-Or-Nothing Offensive

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:

– Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine’s defense line in the Donbass;

– Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;

– the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely;

– Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance;

– The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;

– Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia’s ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West’s at this moment;

– Ukraine’s upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy;

References:

Financial Times – Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 4, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-a…

Financial Times – Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c…

Reuters – EU seals plan to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/…

NYT – Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. (November 25, 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us…

Alexander Mercouris – Russia Big Gains Bakhmut, UK MoD Alarmed Avdeevka; West Stakes All Kiev Offensive; Xi Jinping Moscow (March 21, 2023):
   • Russia Big Gains …  

The Telegraph – Putin is running out of time to win the ammunition war against the West (March 9, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/…

Novya Gazeta – Barren Barrels (November 2022):
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022….

Ukrainian Armed Forces – Russia resumed production of 152-mm shells (November 2022):
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-resu…

Jamestown Foundation – Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part One) (December 2022):
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-…

Jamestown Foundation – Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part Two) (December 2022):
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-…

The Moscow Times – Russia Says Ramping Up Ammunition Production for Ukraine War (January 2023):
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0…

Defense News – Army acquisition chief would welcome tank ramp-up if Congress funds it (May 2022):
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022…