Ukraine’s Strike on Kerch Ferry Crossing Demonstrates the Difficulties of “Isolating” Crimea

▪️A major attack coordinating naval drones and large numbers of ATACMS missiles allegedly damaged 2 ferries and possibly a pilot boat and patrol boats, according to pro-Ukrainian “Kyiv Independent”;

▪️The attack was complex, requiring NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, using large numbers of assets and extensive planning/coordination;

▪️ Such attacks using large numbers of munitions and resources are not possible on a regular basis – not even often enough to permanently disrupt port operations at a single Crimean port let alone the many that are used to move goods and passengers back and forth to the rest of Russia;

▪️In order to actually isolate Crimea, all ports and airports would have to be more or less permanently disrupted/shut down, requiring scores of ATACMS and other long-range missiles fired weekly, something that NATO and its Ukrainian proxies have been unable to do and likely won’t be able to do because of a lack of long-range precision-guided munitions required;

▪️Even Russia, which produces many times more long-range munitions than the collective West is itself struggling to permanently disrupt Ukrainian logistics despite the large volume of regular attacks conducted;

▪️Isolating a peninsula through long-range attacks alone is more or less impossible, with claims of attempting to do so meant more to bolster Ukrainian morale and terrorize/panic the Russian civilian population;