Russia Outproduces West in Drones & Artillery Shells as Ukraine Goes on the Defensive

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for December 3, 2023…

– Russian forces continue to make incremental gains along the line of contact including in Marinka, southwest of Donetsk City as well as in Avdeevka outside Donetsk City;

– Ukrainian President Vlodymr Zelensky announces Ukraine is on the defensive, an oblique admission that various Ukrainian offensives have failed and that future offensives are not feasible;

– Continued admissions come from across the West of an inability to ramp up military industrial production and specifically in relation to artillery shell production;

– FPV (first person view) drones are not an adequate replacement for artillery shells, however they have created dilemmas on both sides in regards to anti-access area denial (A2AD) capabilities;

– Because of Ukraine’s ability to acquire even small amounts of artillery shells, FPV drones, and landmines, Russian offensives will require slow, methodical approaches focused on attrition to avoid large numbers of casualties and equipment losses;

– Despite claims that Russia is already suffering such losses because of operations around Avdeevka, pro-Western “Mediazona” shows increased Russian losses, but nowhere near the scale Ukraine’s General Staff are claiming;

References:

BBC – Ukraine war: Zelensky says fortifying front lines must be accelerated (December 2, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe…

Defense One – In race to make artillery shells, US, EU see different results (Nov 27, 2023):
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2…

CNN – CNN gets rare access inside a plant making ammo for Ukraine (2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politi…

NYT – Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us…

Newsweek – Russia Loses 32 APVs, Nearly 1,300 Soldiers in a Day: Ukraine (December 1, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-troop…

Mediazona – Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated (December 1, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05…

Reuters – Some Ukraine drone pilots fear early advantage over Russia now lost (November 9, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/…

Economist – Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count (November 23, 2023):
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023…