Bangladeshi Students Expected Democracy, Not “Pakistanization”, A Year After Overthrowing Hasina

The military now once again holds premier influence over all aspects of national affairs, it’s suspected of at the very least tacitly encouraging extremist sentiment for reasons of domestic political and foreign policy convenience (the latter vis-à-vis India), and mobs have killed minorities.

5 August marks the one-year anniversary since the US-backed regime change against formerly long-serving Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina succeeded, which some of the same students who helped overthrow her marked by rallying in support of elections as soon as possible. They expected democracy, which they conceive as free and fair elections by their standards, but their country is instead experiencing what can be described as “Pakistanization”.

The military now once again holds premier influence over all aspects of national affairs, it’s suspected of at the very least tacitly encouraging extremist sentiment for reasons of domestic political and foreign policy convenience (the latter vis-à-vis India), and mobs have killed minorities. Ties with India have also deteriorated while those with China and Pakistan have strengthened. All of this was predictable since Hasina herself warned her compatriots of what awaited them if the rolling coup against her succeeded.

The US encouraged her overthrow in order to “Ukrainize” Bangladesh against India, which in the regional context takes the form of “Pakistanizing” it, as a means of derailing India’s rise as a Great Power. This strategy is continued by Trump despite him inheriting it from his nemesis Biden as recently touched upon here. Bangladeshi-emanating conventional and unconventional threats to India’s security are meant to coerce India into subordinating itself as an American vassal. Here are seven background pieces:

* 6 August 2024: “Analyzing The Regime Change Sequence That Toppled Bangladesh’s Long-Serving Prime Minister”

* 17 August 2024: “WaPo Shed Light On The Serious Differences Between India & The US Over Bangladesh”

* 27 August 2024: “China Won’t Be Too Adversely Affected By The US-Backed Regime Change In Bangladesh”

* 22 December 2024: “A Provocative Map Shared By The Bangladeshi Leader’s Special Assistant Made Claims To India”

* 1 April 2025: “Does Bangladesh Have Regional Integration Or Hybrid War Plans For Northeast India?”

* 5 May 2025: “Bangladesh Is Back At It Again With Another ‘Plausibly Deniable’ Territorial Claim To India”

* 30 May 2025: “Bangladesh Is Divided Over Whether To Help The US Carve Out A Proxy State From Myanmar”

Bangladesh’s political order and foreign policy depend to a large degree on whether its de facto military rulers agree to further advance the US’ regional goals, with compliance securing them continued power just like in Pakistan whereas defiance could lead to pressure to hold truly free elections. It therefore can’t be discounted that they’ll help the US carve out a proxy state from Myanmar to connect to Kachin State (whose rare earths the US is eyeing) and resume support for Delhi-designated terrorists-separatists.

At the same time, it’s also possible that they’ll defy the US in the national interest, but Trump could always in that case impose additional tariffs on whatever pretext (presumably democratic and/or humanitarian) to harm Bangladesh’s economy, generate more unrest, and weaponize it against them. This scenario also requires its de facto military leaders to pragmatically patch up problems with India, hold truly free elections, and stop putting their personal interests first, which can’t be taken for granted.

Accordingly, the most likely possibility is that they try to balance between national and personal interests by only extending partial support to the US’ regional goals, but this might be unsustainable with time. Nevertheless, so long as they remain in the US’ good graces to an extent, they could probably resort to lethal force to remain in power just like their Pakistani counterparts have done if genuinely grassroots protests ever erupt, essentially making Hasina’s overthrow all for naught from the students’ perspective.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/bangladeshi-students-expected-democracy