Israel’s downward trajectory

Palestinian resistance to occupation is a key underlying cause of the current crisis

Before discussing current developments in the Israeli occupier state and the massive rift in its ranks, it must be noted that a major underlying cause of the crisis is the emerging armed intifada in the West Bank and 1948 areas, the brigades that lead it in places like Nablus and Jenin, and the powerful impact of their operations on Israeli settlers and their leaders.

It is these brigades, which changed the rules on the ground and horrified the ruling establishment, that caused the rise to power of the Israeli fascist right and its leaders like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who along with their mentor Netanyahu are the main figures of the crisis.

Israel enjoyed security, stability, and economic prosperity for more than thirty years. It cynically contrived to turn the Palestinian Authority into a client and tool, to crush any resistance on behalf of its security agencies, protect the settlers,

and make the Israeli occupation the least costly in history.

The brigades that reverted to the Palestinian legacy of resistance changed all that and shook the underpinnings of Israeli security, stability, and prosperity. Israel may reconcile its internal differences and restore calm and a measure of cohesion. But the armed intifada in the West Bank will not halt. It will persist for as many years it takes to liberate the occupied territories in full.

There are a variety of reasons why states collapse (not just regimes — regimes can fall and be changed without the state being affected). Several of these factors apply at present to the Israeli occupier state to some extent, including:

1. The collapse of the rule of law, and the spread of unrest to the extent that the ruler is unable to control the situation and impose the authority of the state and its institutions. Netanyahu and his government’s bid to impose ‘reforms’ and change the judicial system was the spark that triggered the protests and disturbances.

2. The disintegration of the military, weakening of its doctrine, and incidences of mutiny. The refusal of reservists, especially in the air force, to perform military service, is telling in this regard. (The myth of Israel’s military invincibility was already shattered in 2006).

3. Bad choice of counsel. Netanyahu’s alliance with the widely despised Arab-loathing Ben-Gvir and Smotrich is a prime example.

4. The confluence of misrule and economic decline with corruption. Don’t forget that the reason Netanyahu wants to change the judicial system is to get the corruption charges he faces dropped. The late Yaser Arafat once remarked to me that of all the many governments and peoples he had dealt with, none were more corrupt than the Israelis.

5. Deteriorating economic conditions and widespread labour protests. The latest protests paralysed the occupation state and shut down its airports. Israeli business chiefs have been warning of large-scale capital flight and an exodus of hi-tech investors.

6. Mass emigration. Israeli figures show reverse immigration to be at an all-time high. Liberal columnists write that Israel is no longer a fit place to bring up children and advise their readers to leave. Western embassies are inundated with applications to reclaim citizenship or obtain entry visas.

Israel today is living its worst days, with the internal front collapsing as external threats mount on all sides from an increasingly empowered Axis of Resistance spanning Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and Iraq. The future stands to be replete with unpleasant surprises for the

occupier state, its backers in Europe and America, and its normalising Arab friends both old and new.

Israel’s downward trajectory