Going into Gaza again?

Israel will end up the biggest loser if it launches another ground invasion

The liberation war launched against the Israeli occupation state by Hamas with the participation of other Gaza-based Palestinian factions dealt it a massive military defeat that lost it its two most effective weapons: its scariness, and its deterrent power.

To regain and restore them, it sees no other option than to invade the Gaza Strip overland and completely exterminate Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other groups. Its hesitation about starting such an invasion over the past six days reflects its current state of bewilderment , and maybe also disagreement within the ranks of its political and military leaders.

They need to choose between two main options:

First, a short assault lasting a few days or weeks that might result in the destruction of Hamas and other resistance factions’ infrastructure. That would entail street combat and urban warfare with resistance fighters in a jungle of concrete and rubble. The chances of that ending in success are far outweighed by the chances of failure.

Second , a full-scale invasion aimed at occupying and permanently controlling the Gaza Strip, or its northern half. That would mean sending in tens of thousands of troops and vast numbers of armoured vehicles and tanks to impose control. It would also require the expenditure of billions of dollars to provide basic services and meet the requirements of the new regime that is imposed, especially its security requirements as it prepares to face a guerrilla war that would be bound to inflict heavy losses in lives and materiel.

The question now is whether the demoralised Israeli army is up to such a perilous military adventure. Also, will its reservists heed the call to arms of a government they rebelled against, and hundreds of thousands of whom took to the streets to demand its removal?

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert sent his forces into Gaza in 2008 to wage a war that continued for three weeks. After killing hundreds of women and children and destroying thousands of homes, they were dealt a major defeat, even though Hamas at the time had nothing like the level of weaponry, number of fighters, or combat experience, it has now. That is why Olmert is now warning strongly against any ground invasion, permanent or temporary. In an interview with The Financial Times this week he said Israel would face its worst and darkest days ever if it went back into the Gaza Strip.

In a separate interview, retired Israeli colonel Shimon Arad explained that it is Hamas’ network of tunnels that has deterred Israel from re-invading Gaza in recent years to prevent it from developing its capabilities and accumulating missiles.

Hamas’ defensive capabilities and those of the other resistance groups will far surpass their offensive capabilities should the Israeli army make such a move. The land defends is people. It is an axiom of military theory that for an attacking force to succeed it must outnumber the defending force by up to four or five times. One could add that a single resistance fighter, committed to victory and prepared to die for it, is worth ten regular troops. The toll in casualties and material losses would be much greater than Israeli commanders seem to anticipate, especially in light of the combat experience that has been gained in resisting Israeli occupation forces.

The losses the resistance inflicted on Ariel Sharon forced him to turn tail and pull out, taking his 17,000 settlers with him, in 2005. That was an exercise in cost-cutting and an admission of defeat that should be borne in mind these days.

The Israeli occupation state stands to be the big loser, whether it ‘swallows’ its humiliation and lives with the consequences to avoid another defeat, or whether it maintains its arrogance and sends half a million regulars and reservists to invade Gaza in a bid to eradicate Hamas and the other resistance groups. Their snipers, Merkava-busting Kornet anti-tank missiles, maze of underground tunnels, divers, precision weapons, and formidable fighters will be waiting. They will accord the invading troops the welcome they deserve.

Israel has much to lose, possibly extending to its existence in its current form. The Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and West Bank — where they are preparing to act against the settlements and escalate resistance — have only their besiegement and humiliation to lose, while gaining the prospect of liberating themselves and their land and defending their holy places.

The days to come will most certainly be replete with surprises.

Going into Gaza again?