Is Greenland Destined to Become Part of the US?

Newly sworn-in US President Donald Trump has committed his administration to the task of turning Greenland, a sparsely populated territory under the jurisdiction of Denmark, into a US-governed possession. Despite pushback from the Danish government and other European politicians, Trump has doubled down on his stance, setting the stage for a test of wills that will decide the future of this strategically important island. The status of Greenland’s sovereignty will play a decisive role in deciding which nation has the upper hand in a looming geopolitical struggle over resources, sea lanes and clout in the Arctic region for decades to come.

The current controversy over Greenland dates to a Dec. 22 post by President-elect Trump on social media platform X regarding his decision to appoint Ken Howery as the US ambassador to Denmark. In the post, Trump declared that, “For purposes of national security and freedom throughout the world, the US feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

When he was asked at a subsequent news conference a few days later whether he would rule out using “military or economic coercion” to gain control over Greenland, Trump answered “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this: We need them for economic security.”

The announcement by Trump that he was considering the use of military force and/or economic coercion to forcefully seize control of the sovereign territory of a close Nato ally drew immediate condemnation from both the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s prime minister, Mute Egede. It was also condemned by other European leaders such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who declared that, “the principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country … no matter whether it’s a very small one or a very powerful one,” and the French foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, who said, “There is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders.”

Rather than shirking away from the European backlash, Trump — on his first night as president after inauguration Jan. 20 — seemed to double down on his stated objective of US ownership of Greenland, observing that, in his opinion, Denmark would “come along” to the US position, adding that US possession of the island was “necessary for international security.”

Jewel of the Arctic

This isn’t the first time Trump has mused openly about the desirability of Greenland as a US territory — he made similar statements back in 2019. Nor is this the first time a US president has indicated that the possession of Greenland would be in the interest of the US. Back in 1867, then-President Andrew Johnson floated the proposition of US ownership of Greenland, and at the end of World War II, President Harry Truman offered the Danes $100 million for the island — an offer the Danish government turned down.

In 1951, the US established an air base on Greenland where the US would base strategic bombers and reconnaissance aircraft as part of their anti-Soviet, Cold War-era posture. The US also established a series of early warning radar sites that were designed to detect any Soviet ballistic missile attack against North America over the Arctic. This base, since renamed Pituffik Space Station, maintains this early warning network, while also overseeing the operation of a cascade of US satellites that orbit above the Arctic.

The strategic value of Greenland, however, rests not with its status as the northernmost outpost of US military power in the world, but rather the newly emerging importance it has acquired because of global warming — the retreat of the polar ice cap will in future open up large parts of Greenlandic territory previously permanently encased in ice for economic development. Greenland has large deposits of rare earth minerals and other raw materials such as gold, zinc, platinum, titanium and others potentially worth trillions of dollars.

Likewise, the retreating ice cap has made Arctic transit for commercial vessels increasingly viable, dramatically shortening the distance ships would need to travel from Europe to Asia and the West Coast of the Americas and back. Russia’s strong advantage in ocean-going icebreakers has provided it with a clear advantage in terms of utilization and control of these newly opened sea lanes. Moreover, China has begun constructing its own fleet of icebreakers as part of its “Arctic Silk Road” initiative with Russia to fully exploit the transportation advantages accrued by using Arctic transit routes.

As things stand, Russia and, to a lesser degree, China enjoy a strategic advantage over the US and its Western allies, including Denmark, when it comes to positioning themselves for maximum exploitation potential of the new opportunities provided by a thawing Arctic. Challenging Russian dominance and blunting Chinese access to the Arctic appears to be the principal motivation behind Trump’s ambition to take control of Greenland.

Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly said that Greenland is not for sale. But Egede said at a press conference on Jan. 20 that the geopolitical “reality is we are going to work with the US — yesterday, today and tomorrow,” especially on defense and natural resources.

Greenland is home to “only about 56,000 people” and is mostly “covered in ice,” the New York Times wrote on Dec. 17. But as “climate change melts the Arctic ice,” the US, Russia, China and Europe have been “eyeing” its emerging “Arctic’s shipping lanes” and “extensive mineral resources.”

A Matter of Neglect

While the Danish government is adamant that Greenland is not for sale, there is a growing recognition that Denmark has dropped the ball when it comes to its stewardship of such a strategically important territory. As Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulson recently noted, “We have neglected for many years to make the necessary investments in ships and in aircraft that will help monitor our kingdom, and that is what we are now trying to do something about.”

To make up for this neglect, Denmark is planning to construct a new airbase in Kangerlussuaq, a settlement located approximately 300 kilometers north of Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, which would serve as a hub for Danish F-35 fighters and long-range drones. But these plans, which involve the deployment of fewer than 100 personnel, are modest, reflecting the overall caution of a Danish government seeking to balance an already overburdened defense budget with the interests of the US and the aspirations of an indigenous population seeking greater autonomy or independence from Denmark.

There is no doubt the US could invest far greater resources than Denmark in the defense of Greenland. And it doesn’t look like Trump is simply playing political parlor games when it comes to fulfilling the ambition behind his pronouncements. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, commenting on Greenland during his Senate confirmation hearings, underscored that, “We need to understand that Greenland has been strategically important to the US and the West for a very long time.” Trump’s allies in the House of Representatives have also submitted a bill — H.R. 361 — which authorizes the president to enter negotiations with Denmark to secure the acquisition of Greenland by the US.

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