Trump has thrown Europe and Ukraine under the bus, but will they learn?

Years of misguided pro-Kyiv policy has not even bought EU leaders a seat at the table in Washington-brokered ceasefire talks

The lengthy phone call last week between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and their ensuing discussions on ending the Ukraine war, have understandably dominated global news in recent days.

European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, are in a state of shock, especially after US Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference.

The credits are rolling on the Truman Show in which these leaders have been living for the last three years. The hard reality is emerging: the new US administration, while actively working to throw Palestinians under the bus, seems determined to do the same to Ukrainians.

The biggest collateral political damage in this latest endeavour comprises Washington’s European “allies”. It is not normal for the Financial Times editorial board to ask the question: “Is the US still an ally?”

The US and Russia have agreed to talk about ending the war in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have already met to lay the groundwork for a future summit in Saudi Arabia, while failing to consult the EU and other Nato members.

Nato ministers had anticipated the bad news after the astonishing remarks in Brussels by the new US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, who said Nato membership for Ukraine was unrealistic, and doubled down by suggesting that Kyiv should abandon the idea of reclaiming all Russian-occupied territory.

He then tripled down by noting that EU members willing to deploy troops to monitor the hypothetical ceasefire line agreed between Russia and Ukraine could not count on US military support. So, goodbye to Nato’s often-invoked Article 5 on collective defence.

In other words, the last chapter of the EU leaders’ Truman Show consists of believing that Russia would accept their troops as “impartial” monitors of a ceasefire line – the mother of all non-starters concerning a possible deal on Ukraine.

Reddest line

Whoever expected something different, as EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas appears to have, is not living in the real world.

In just a few days, three decades of US policy regarding Ukraine’s potential membership in Nato, and the last three years aimed at inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, have been upended. From now on, this approach by the new US administration is going to be the norm, and not the exception. Vance’s recent speeches have been unequivocal: you Europeans will continue to be subjugated.

This turn of events vindicates those who urged caution in dealing with an issue that Russia – since the 1990s, and unequivocally since Putin’s 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference – has presented as the reddest of red lines.

The Biden administration and the EU rejected common sense by opting for policies that were detached from reality – even as western political and diplomatic elites have for decades strongly advised against Nato’s eastward expansion.

Having ignored the warning signals from Russia, contemptuously rejected Moscow’s past diplomatic proposals, blindly followed a US-UK strategy aimed at defeating Russia, sabotaged the chance of a negotiated solution brokered by Turkey in 2022, expanded the conflict by arming Ukraine and allowing it to target Russian territory, applied heavy sanctions on Moscow that have spectacularly backfired, and put decades of global financial stability at risk by freezing hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian assets, European leaders are now discovering that all these efforts didn’t even earn them a seat at the bargaining table.

This is the biggest political, economic and diplomatic disaster the EU has ever incurred, and it is well-encapsulated by the maxim: to err is human, but to persist is diabolical.

At this stage, a reassessment of the so-called transatlantic relationship is long overdue. Since the end of the Cold War, has this relationship really promoted the interests of Europe?

Reality check

There is no doubt that during the long Cold War, European nations benefitted enormously from their alliance with the US, based on shared values and effective security and economic cooperation. Europe’s renaissance after the cataclysmic Second World War owed much to this generous American commitment.

But in the post-Cold-War era, the benefits of this partnership have been dubious. A reality check finds unequivocally that the main recent threats to Europe came not from its supposed enemies, but from its most important ally on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

US financial recklessness triggered the 2008 financial crisis, which had dramatic consequences globally and specifically within the EU, whose strict austerity policies have had lasting sociopolitical consequences. Meanwhile, endless US wars since 2001 have displaced more than 38 million people globally, fuelling Europe’s migration crisis.

Would anyone seriously try to blame Russia for the 2008 global financial disaster, the massive international refugee crisis, or the deeply misguided concept of “exporting democracy”?

Could anyone honestly claim that the deterioration of the West’s relationship with Russia since 2007 has been entirely ascribable to the evils of Putin? The 2014 Ukraine crisis, which led to the installation of a pro-western government, was followed by the Minsk agreements, which the West signed in bad faith.

Reflecting on the first two decades of the 21st century, can anyone still seriously claim that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unprovoked? This does not make the invasion legal or legitimate, but the same applies to far more numerous western military interventions elsewhere in the world since the 1990s.

Harsh EU sanctions against Russia over the past several years have failed to bring Moscow to its knees. And yet, there are no signs that the European leaders responsible for this epochal disaster are keen to radically shift their policies.

The summit hastily convened in Paris by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday proves it. A second one planned for Wednesday does not sound promising, considering European divisions.

If Europe is thus destined for irrelevance, it has done its best to deserve it.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-should-europe-still-see-us-ally