Will Putin Agree To A Ceasefire?

There are five compelling arguments for either scenario.
Ukraine just agreed to a month-long ceasefire after talks with the US in Jeddah, but it’s conditional on Russia agreeing to the same, which remains uncertain. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to pay his second trip to Moscow in just as many months later this week, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz plans to speak to Russian officials soon, while Trump said that he hopes to talk to Putin by Friday. All three will try to convince Putin to silence the guns. Here’s why he might not agree to do that:
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1. Russia Wants To Liberate All The Occupied Territories
Putin declared last June that he’d only agree to a ceasefire if Ukraine withdrew from the entirety of the four regions that voted to join Russia in September 2022 and publicly abandoned its plans to join NATO. That was shortly before Ukraine invaded Russia’s universally recognized Kursk Region. Agreeing to a ceasefire now with no guarantee that it’ll lead to the liberation of those five regions could result in the indefinite occupation of at least some of them if the front lines harden into a Korean-DMZ.
2. The Front Lines Might Soon Collapse To Russia’s Benefit
It’s obvious that one of the primary reasons why Ukraine agreed to a month-long ceasefire conditional on Russia agreeing to the same, apart from resuming the US’ previously cut military and intelligence aid, is to prevent the front lines from soon collapsing to Russia’s benefit. Aware of this, Russia might decide to carry on – perhaps advancing while negotiating additional terms to the proposed ceasefire – in order to take full advantage of this, thus raising the chances of speedily liberating all the occupied territories.
3. Russia Wants To Scare Away Western Peacekeepers
European peacekeepers might enter Ukraine during the month-long ceasefire, or some of their “mercenaries” who are already there might simply switch uniforms to then take on this role instead, which Russia already said would be absolutely unacceptable and make them legitimate targets. Keeping the conflict going might therefore scare them away from this and thus ensure that de facto NATO forces are kept as far away from Russia’s western border as possible.
4. Some Of The Russian Public Don’t Want A Ceasefire
A significant share of the Russian public, including veterans of the special operation, are thought to be against any ceasefire since they’d consider it to be stopping halfway instead of finishing the job after all the sacrifices that were paid to get this far. The authorities are sensitive to public opinion on the conflict, especially from veterans, so their opposition to this might be taken into consideration more than outside observers expect and could thus push Putin a lot closer to rejecting a ceasefire than most other factors.
5. Putin Might Really Believe That Trump Is Bluffing
And finally, the most decisive factor might be that Putin truly believes that Trump is bluffing about “escalating to de-escalate”, whether economically-financially through the strict enforcement of secondary sanctions against India, China, etc., and/or militarily by going all-in backing Ukraine. If that’s the case, then it follows that Putin only entertained negotiations to see whether he could achieve his maximum goals through diplomatic means, absent which he’d continue pursuing them militarily.
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There’s also the chance that Putin agrees to a ceasefire, which could be explained in the following ways:
1. Russia Wants To Avert Disproportionate Dependence On China
Trump’s tweet last Friday suggested that he plans strict secondary sanctions enforcement against India and China if Putin rejects a ceasefire, which could lead to the first complying and thus placing Russia in the position where it would become much more dependent on the second. Russia has thus far relied on India as its friendly counterbalance vis-a-vis China, but if Putin is informed that this might no longer be the case if Russia keeps fighting, then he might opt for peace to avoid becoming China’s junior partner.
2. It Also Wants To Beat China To The Chase With The “New Détente”
Putin wouldn’t just be rejecting a ceasefire, but also a “New Détente” with the US, which could lead to China replacing Russia in this arrangement if Trump travels to China next month like the latest reports claim and then negotiates a deal for ending their trade war. The recalibrated triangulation that might follow wouldn’t be in Russia’s interests, especially if the US gets China to comply with sanctions in order to coerce Russia into peace, so Putin might agree to a ceasefire in order to avert this scenario as well.
3. The “New Détente” Could Geopolitically Revolutionize The World
Putin might calculate that beating China to the chase with the “New Détente” and becoming more of a strategic partner to the US than the EU are worth pragmatic compromises on Ukraine since these two outcomes could geopolitically revolutionize the world to Russia’s grand strategic advantage. If that’s what he’s thinking, then he might defy popular expectations to boldly agree to a ceasefire, after which publicly financed media would explain the rationale to Russia’s supporters at home and abroad.
4. Additional (& Even Secret) Terms Might Be Attached To The Ceasefire
Building upon the above, additional (and even secret) terms might be attached to the ceasefire for guaranteeing that Western peacekeepers won’t enter Ukraine and that the US won’t maximally rearm it during that period, which Russia could get the US to agree to via creative resource diplomacy. Giving the US privileged access to Russian energy and minerals, especially the rare earth ones that it needs for competing with China, might be all that it takes for Trump to put the kibosh on those two aforesaid fears.
5. Putin Might Really Believe That Trump Is Serious
And finally, the most decisive factor might be that Putin truly believes that Trump is serious about “escalating to de-escalate”, in which case he might prefer not to risk a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis that could hypothetically end with Russia compromising on much more than if it agreed to a ceasefire. Putin is a pragmatist who prefers managing tensions instead of exacerbating them, with the only recent exception being the decision to use the Oreshniks as explained here, so he might take Trump up on this.
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Everyone will soon find out whether or not Putin agrees to a ceasefire, but whichever decision he makes, the five reasons that were shared for each scenario would compellingly explain his choice. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll do since each scenario’s arguments are persuasive and he knows that this is his most fateful decision since the special operation. Putin might therefore ask their respective Kremlin proponents to debate amongst themselves in front of him one last time before making up his mind.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/will-putin-agree-to-a-ceasefire
Batom
A 30 days ‘ceasefire”
Especially after the attack of 387 drones deep inside Russia, the night before the negotiations. Done on purpose and showing what the “Ukrainians” (and their western handlers) really are.
The same types of ‘ceasefires’ were presented to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Look at the situation now: both violated every day since day one and now both dead due to the US-israel lies and deceits.
Russia can’t trust the west, can’t trust Trump more than it did Biden. The US can’t be trusted.
Russian personalities and media ask themselves the same question: Will Putin cave-in to the trick?
The fact that he, for the first time visited Kursk region today to hasten the expulsion of the last remaining Ukrainian/foreign mercenary troops might indicate that he intends to cave-in but not before having Kursk Oblast completely liberated.
However, he should think like that:
‘A ceasefire only benefits those who are retreating’: Russia’s top foreign relations experts and actors react to US-Ukraine talks
From RT
Political analyst Sergey Markov:
1. A ceasefire would be exploited by the West and Ukraine to halt the advance of the Russian army, strip it of its initiative, supply the Ukrainian army with more weapons, continue extensive mobilization in Ukraine, and strengthen the repressive and anti-Russian nature of the Ukrainian political regime
2. The experience of the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements clearly demonstrates this pattern
3. The consistent dishonesty of Western politicians and media regarding the conflict, as well as their refusal to acknowledge their own and Ukraine’s culpability, strongly suggests that history will repeat itself
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly stated that what Russia needs is lasting peace, not just a temporary ceasefire
5. The West cannot really be trusted
6. Russia is advancing. A ceasefire always benefits those who are retreating
Philosopher Alexander Dugin:
A ceasefire is not a serious proposition, especially when Ukraine is clearly starting to lose. But it will take time for everything to fall into place.
A Ceasefire and Then More Treachery
From slavlandchronicles
Let me answer your question with a question, friend.
If this is a genuine ceasefire proposed out of a desire for peace, why are weapons flows resuming into Ukraine?
If you wanted to enforce the peace, and stop Kiev from invading into Russia, bombing into Russia and escalating the war by other means, why would you continue giving them weapons after getting them to agree to a 30-day ceasefire?
Like in Lebanon and Gaza, the ‘ceasfire’ is the honey pot served by the losers to transform their defeat into ugly “victories”.
We all remember Putin’s debacle in Syria. The ‘negotiations” also took place in Doha. Russia took a real hit there and its reputation has seriously been downgraded as a result.
The same type of blunder close to home could be fatal for Russia.
Spassi
Hope Russia will not get conned again, like in Syria…
1/ Liberate all Novo Rossya territories first, 25% remaining in each regions, Dontesk, Zaporidhie and Kherson.
2/ Finish off the remaining ukrainians left in the last 15/20% territory they still hold in Kurks oblast.
3/ No western troops in Ukraine. if they want an international and neutral peace force, then use Chinese, Brazilian or UN blue helmet (without any westerners in it).
4/ Ukraine must never join NATO
5/ Free real elections to take place in Ukraine
Optional: finish off the azov battalion and other neo-Nazis
6/ Peace deal, not a mere ‘ceasefire’ guaranteeing and validating all of the above and making sure that Ukraine stop militarizing.
This is exactly the contrary of what the western liars, led by the liar in chief, Trumpstein, the zionist lackey do not want, therefore I don’t see why Putin should agree to this bullshit ‘ceasefire’.
Christian
Putin would be a fool to accetta ceasefire with no reward in exchange.
Christian
To accept a ceasefire