What Was The Real Reason Behind Qin Gang’s Removal?

The most common theories being bandied about are that Qin: was the victim of a power struggle within the party; was caught up in a corruption scandal; was much sicker than thought; or was busted for having an affair. In the order that they were shared: reports about Chinese power struggles are usually just baseless Western speculation; he wasn’t in a position to be wildly corrupt; sickness isn’t sensational but it might be true; while an affair could pose a security risk if he’s blackmailed and isn’t implausible.

Speculation is swirling about the real reason why Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was just replaced on Tuesday by his predecessor Wang Yi, the latter of whom was promoted last year to Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China. Not only was this shake-up unusual in and of itself, but it came after Qin served in his now-former post for only a little over half a year. He had also disappeared from public for a month prior to Tuesday’s announcement.

The most common theories being bandied about are that Qin: was the victim of a power struggle within the party; was caught up in a corruption scandal; was much sicker than thought; or was busted for having an affair. In the order that they were shared: reports about Chinese power struggles are usually just baseless Western speculation; he wasn’t in a position to be wildly corrupt; sickness isn’t sensational but it might be true; while an affair could pose a security risk if he’s blackmailed and isn’t implausible.

Whatever one believes, there’s no denying that the optics of his removal are certainly odd as was earlier explained, especially his month-long disappearance. In order to obtain a better understanding of what might have taken place, or at least rule out what probably didn’t, one should remember the context in which former Ambassador to the US Qin was appointed in the first place. This came amidst serious efforts to explore a Sino-US New Detente after their leaders met at the G20 Summit in Bali that fall.

These plans fell through as a result of deep mutual distrust between the hardliners in their respective policymaking bureaucracies and especially their armed forces, which climaxed during the suspicious balloon incident in early February that led to the cancellation of Blinken’s planned trip to Beijing. One month later, Qin lambasted the US during his first press conference, which signaled that the man who was arguably meant to serve as the face of the New Detente had now turned into a “wolf warrior”.

This reversal of fortune wasn’t any fault of his own but attributable to the complex sequence of events that spoiled their countries’ plans for a series of mutual compromises aimed at creating a “new normal” in their relations. Even so, it would have been the best possible moment in hindsight for speculatively powerful party dissidents to flex their political muscles by replacing him for symbolism’s sake, yet that didn’t happen.

In fact, Qin ultimately met Blinken in Beijing in mid-June one-third of a year after they originally planned, which came after Kissinger suggested that American policymakers attempt to revive the New Detente. He himself ended up visiting the Chinese capital in late July despite having already turned 100 by then in a demonstration of how strongly he personally felt about the need for this to happen. Qin was missing from public by then, but these related developments aligned with what he was appointed to achieve.

It therefore doesn’t make much sense to speculate that his removal was the result of a power struggle since the New Detente faction that some regard him as representing is still an influential policymaking force to be reckoned with as evidenced by President Xi and Defense Minister Li meeting Kissinger. As for the theory that Qin was caught up in a corruption scandal, not only wasn’t he in a position to do all that much of this, but his removal likely wouldn’t have occurred the way it did if this was true.

For instance, the party would probably have prepared a replacement in order for there to be a smooth transition the moment that law enforcement authorities decided to detain him considering the historically close coordination between those two arms of the state. It’s difficult to imagine that the latter would have kept secret their plans from the former, which would have inflicted harm on the country’s national interests by dint of unexpectedly depriving it of its Foreign Minister.

If Qin was really taken down for corruption, then his removal would probably have been swift, as would have been his replacement by Director Wang or whoever else the party would have appointed in his place. It’s of course possible that everything wasn’t as perfectly coordinated behind the scenes as it was supposed to be in this sort of situation, but in that case, someone will definitely be punished for dropping the ball. That said, this scenario can probably be ruled out as well, at least for now.

This leaves the two theories regarding his health being much worse than previously thought and the possibility of him being busted for an affair that might have had national security implications. As for the first, the optics would likely have been handled a lot better in that case than him simply disappearing from the public for an entire month. If he caught COVID, then an announcement could have been made about this and him having to quarantine, while updates about his condition could have followed.

It would have likely been the same if he had any other illness that required him to stay away from his duties for a prolonged period of time. Since absolutely no details were officially shared about this other than a vague reference to him missing an event for “health reasons”, this scenario probably isn’t credible either, unless he’s literally on his deathbed or already passed away and the party is being discrete for his family’s privacy. Therefore, speculation about him getting busted for an affair makes the most sense.

Interested readers can search Google on their own to discover the specifics about this theory, which aren’t relevant to the present piece apart from the fact that this explanation is being widely discussed by many, thus suggesting that there might be a kernel of truth to it. All the same, an affair alone isn’t normally grounds for making one of the world’s most important public officials disappear for a month and then be replaced by their predecessor without explanation, hence why there might be more to it.

As with the corruption scenario, if he was going to be taken down for this reason, then law enforcement authorities would have presumably coordinated this with the party in order for there to be as seamless of a transition as possible so as to avoid harming their country’s national interests. The only exception to this expectation is if something of heightened security importance was suddenly discovered about his speculative mistress such as her either being a foreign agent or totally spied upon by foreign intelligence.

In either case, there could be credible concern that China’s rivals had already learned so much about Qin and his work that it would be irresponsible to the extreme for him to serve another second in his position, which is why he might have been detained from that moment onward for debriefing. This version of events explains his abrupt month-long disappearance and ultimate replacement with his predecessor out of an absence of choice since the party would have been forced to improve in this crisis.

If this is indeed what happened, then nobody should get their hopes up about it being officially confirmed since it would make the most sense for China to explain Qin’s removal away as the result of a serious sickness or possibly later charge him with corruption on whatever pretext to set an example. It goes without saying that maybe he really is deathly ill and could even have already passed away for all that one knows, but as this analysis showed, there are compelling reasons to be skeptical of that story.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/what-was-the-real-reason-behind-qin