Orban’s Trip To Kiev Was Primarily About Bilateral Relations

It took Hungary’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for Orban to finally visit Kiev, which raised the chances that he wouldn’t be mistreated by Zelensky out of vengeance for his views.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s trip to Kiev earlier this week generated a lot of attention due to it being the first time that he visited the Ukrainian capital since the latest phase of the NATO-Russian proxy war in that country broke out nearly two and half years ago. The media also focused mostly on his suggestion that Ukraine agree to a ceasefire in order to facilitate peace talks, which was predictably rejected, thus leading to the impression that his visit was only about that and had thus failed.

The fact of the matter though is that the Hungarian and Ukrainian press releases both mentioned that the purpose of his trip was to make progress on bilateral relations. Orban’s interest in peace, which might have recently been piqued even further by Zelensky hinting that such talks could take place via a mediator just like the grain deal ones did, was secondary to this goal. About that, he primarily wanted to ensure that Kiev finally respects the rights of ethnic Hungarians in the Zakarpattia Region.

This “Under-Discussed Humanitarian Dimension Of Hungary’s Stance Towards The Ukrainian Conflict” plays a major role in why Budapest refuses to arm Kiev or allow its NATO allies to do so via its territory. That region belonged to Hungarian Civilization for over a millennium but ended up under Czechoslovak control after World War I, prior to which it briefly returned to Hungarian hands from 1939-1945, only to then be transferred to Soviet Ukraine upon the end of World War II.

Kiev’s forcible conscription policies have had an outsized impact on the country’s Hungarian minority, some of whom were captured by Russia but then sent to Hungary in June 2023 upon their request instead of back to Ukraine. That incident was analyzed here at the time for those who’d like to learn more about it. The importance rests in the fact that those conscripted Hungarians didn’t feel comfortable returning to Ukraine due to its discriminatory policies against their minority group.

Orban is obligated to ensure his co-ethnics’ interests as best as he can, but he hitherto declined to travel Ukraine for that purpose since no progress had thus far been made on this, though his country’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU gave him the opportunity to do so while also exploring a ceasefire. He visited Kiev not just as the Hungarian Prime Minister, but as a representative of the Council of the EU, thus ensuring that Zelensky didn’t try to upstage or humiliate him but instead treated him with respect.

Although the trip was primarily about resolving bilateral issues, the diplomatic context of Hungary’s new EU role over the next half-year created a much better atmosphere than if it had been a purely bilateral trip with Orban participating solely in his capacity as the Hungarian Prime Minister. Moreover, Zelensky knows that he’ll need Orban’s agreement if Ukraine is to make further progress on joining the EU, no matter how superficial it ultimately is. That in turn made him more amenable to bilateral negotiations.

The only tangible outcome of their meeting was that Orban committed to building and financing as many Ukrainian schools as this community needs inside of Hungary owing to the influx of refugees. That was a clever move since it pressures Zelensky to respond reciprocally by restoring the Hungarian minority’s rights even though he didn’t commit to anything tangible yet. Talks on this are underway though judging by Orban’s optimism that the matter will be resolved with a comprehensive cooperation agreement.

All told, it took Hungary’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for Orban to finally visit Kiev, which raised the chances that he wouldn’t be mistreated by Zelensky out of vengeance for his views. Even though he broached the subject of a ceasefire, the real purpose behind his trip as confirmed by both parties was to enhance bilateral ties, which remain troubled but might soon normalize. His visit can therefore be assessed as a positive step in the right direction, but it’ll still take time to bear fruit, if any.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/orbans-trip-to-kiev-was-primarily