Five Reasons Why The Newly Declared Ethiopian-Indian Strategic Partnership Is So Important

The centrality of shared digital- and AI-driven development therein is arguably the most significant feature of their new relationship, which is the means through which India plans to compete with China in a friendly way for hearts, minds, and markets across the Global South.

Ethiopia and India elevated their historical ties to a strategic partnership during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, where he was given a grand welcome. His counterpart Abiy Ahmed broke protocol to pick him up at the airport and later drive him back. Modi was also bestowed the Great Honor Nishan of Ethiopia during his visit, the country’s highest away, while eight outcomes were reached as a result of their talks. What follows are the top five reasons why their new strategic partnership is so important:

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1. Ethiopia & India Are Ancient Civilizations

Modi mentioned that their countries are actually ancient civilizations with millennia of relations during his speech to the Ethiopian Parliament. This is significant since one of the trends of the global systemic transition is the leading role therein of what the Russian School of Multipolarism considers to be civilization-states, those that left lasting socio-political legacies on their neighbors over the centuries. Ethiopia and India fit the bill, and accordingly, they’re accelerating multipolar processes in their regions.

2. They’re Also Leaders Of The Global South

Some surviving civilization-states lost most of their influence by now, but not Ethiopia and India, which are Global South leaders. Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous country, India is the world’s first, and they’re both rapidly developing BRICS states, so more South-South cooperation between them can set an example for the rest of the Global South. On the topic of BRICS, they also enjoy close ties with fellow members Russia and the UAE, which could lead to a mini-lateral or “Multipolar Quad” within this group.

3. AI Will Play A Central Role In Their Ties

Abiy noted that “India’s vision of self-reliance strongly resonates with Ethiopia’s own development philosophy”, which contextualizes Modi’s decision to establish a data center in Ethiopia, provide specialized short-term AI courses to its students, and invite Abiy to next year’s AI Impact Summit. Abiy envisages Ethiopia leading Africa’s AI-powered future in the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, and it’s highly important that India will help his country and thus the entire content by extension achieve this goal.

4. They Have Similar Security Challenges…

Although there hasn’t been any confirmation that they discussed this during their talks, Ethiopia and India have similar security challenges, namely a hostile neighbor that’s waged various forms of hybrid war against them over the decades. This includes backing groups that they consider to be terrorists. The basis therefore exists for closer military-security cooperation between them, which could involve more frequent talks between their top military officials, arms sales, joint exercises, and relevant conferences.

5. …And Interests In Regional Maritime Security

The Houthis’ blockade of the Red Sea endangered the Ethiopian economy, which is dependent upon this waterway for international trade, and raised the cost of Indian exports to Europe since the vast majority transit through there. Both therefore have interests in regional maritime security, which Ethiopia plans to advance by restoring its historical access to the sea and thenceforth its navy while India might be in the market for a nearby naval base. Jointly recognizing Somaliland could help them achieve their goals.

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All in all, the primary significance of the new Ethiopian-Indian Strategic Partnership is the centrality of shared digital- and AI-driven development therein, which is the means through which India plans to compete with China in a friendly way for hearts, minds, and markets across the Global South. China hitherto had a de facto monopoly on all of this via BRI, but India has now thrown down the gauntlet, and their resultant competition will give Global South states more options and therefore better deals.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/five-reasons-why-the-newly-declared