Paradoxically fear is the foundation of stability: deterrence works

Russian nuclear deterrence is a European interest too. Communication channels are essential – this needs to be managed well.

 there will be no war and that everything will work out for the best. We must return a sense of self-preservation to those who have forgotten their past wars and crimes”.

So, no wonder Professor Karaganov’s colleague, Dmitri Trenin, recently appointed President of the Russian International Affairs Council, has written a new piece entitled, Strategic Stability Now Rests on Fear:

The Arms Control era, Trenin writes, often equated with strategic stability, “in fact expired long ago – with Washington’s growing unwillingness to remain bound by commitments made in a different historical context: the late Cold War and its aftermath” – “Now comes the real nuclear order”.

“In spring 2022″, Trenin writes,

“while New START was still formally in force, the U.S. openly declared its aim of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia in the Ukraine proxy conflict. At the same time, Washington proposed consultations on “strategic stability.” In effect, the U.S. sought to weaken a nuclear superpower in a conventional war while preserving arms control mechanisms that shielded itself from the consequences of [such] escalation. That contradiction revealed the hollowness of the old framework”.

In tandem with Karaganov’s proposition – “Potential adversaries need to know that an arms race is senseless and even suicidal: Dialog, at least with the Americans, should be conducted on this matter” – Trenin concludes too that “sustained bilateral and multilateral dialogue, transparency measures, and permanent communication channels are required”.

Yet the core remains unchanged from half a century ago. Strategic stability ultimately rests on credible nuclear deterrence – a sufficient arsenal and the demonstrated readiness to use it if necessary. Intimidation, however uncomfortable the word may be, remains the foundation of peace among nuclear powers.

Is credible Russian nuclear deterrence then a European interest too? Yes, clearly so. Communication channels are essential – this needs to be managed well.

Paradoxically fear is the foundation of stability: deterrence works